Wednesday, November 9, 2016

We have a bear steepening yield curve 11/9/16

Before going into that, look at the extreme move in treasuries.

3-7 year

 7-10 year

20+ year


And this is a picture of extreme bullishness in the stock market:

A bear steepening curve is when long term rates rise faster than short term rates.  Here is proof of long term rates rising faster than short term rates because obviously you don’t believe me:

Above is the 10-2.

Note that the curve has steepened since the end of August.

A bear steepening curve assumes improving macroeconomics.  But you say it isn’t improving.  Maybe people only need to think it is improving.

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