Saturday, December 3, 2016

My jobs report November 2016

There you have it.  Another November to November cycle completed.  Of course there will be revisions. These numbers are from table B1 not seasonally adjusted of the Employment Situation report or from FRED PAYNSA.

The average monthly job growth for 2016 was 190,000 jobs.
                                                           2015 was 233,000
                                                           2014 was 232,000
                                                           2013 was 209,000
                                                           2012 was 179,000

{click to enlarge}

The slow down is evident.  There are 2,277,000 more jobs than November a year ago which had 2,791,000 more jobs than in 2014.  To me it doesn't look that bad because I have not had high expectations.

Annual job growth, November to November, peak to peak.

2016   2,277,000
2015   2,791,000
2014   2,788,000
2013   2,505,000
2012   2,145,000
2011   1,946,000
2010      712,000
2009 -5,527,000 

One concern is that the number of part-time jobs spiked up..  That makes the numbers I present overstated because each part time job is counted as one job in the payroll survey. This will be good if more of these jobs are kept in the big January layoff.  I am just saying the payroll survey is overstate because of counting each part time job as one job and more so this November than usual.

Decembers are very close to Novembers.  The action starts in January.  The hope is that the layoffs are less deep than the January before.

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