Thursday, March 2, 2017

Economy Review GDP minus FEDERAL DEBT 03/02/17

This is really delayed data.  It is only as of the third quarter of 2016.  We are four months away from this presentation.  But it is instructive.  Since the 1950s the economy grew without incurring much federal debt.  It wasn't until really the start of the "Great Moderation" in the early 1980s, our magic times, that debt was increased.

This chart shows the effectiveness of federal debt.  Obviously it is increasingly ineffective.  Yes, I know, the Camelot period of Bill Clinton showed increasing effectiveness.  But it was a false economy that ended in a bust and the massive corporate fraud during Bill Clinton's regime ended with the Sarbanes-Oxley laws and all that corporate governance stuff that corporations now do.

We did not recover from the dot com bust during the 2000s.  Interestingly, and heralded as an Obama success is that the economy grew with less increases in federal debt.  But as you can see that all came to an end towards the end of the Obama regime.  It is now, as of Q3'16 looking ugly again.

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