Thursday, March 2, 2017

Economy Review INCOME & SPENDING 03/02/17


Real PCE YoY - does this look good?  We almost had a recession in 2012 which led to QE3.  How well have we recovered from that low?  What is good is that it doesn't appear to be getting worse.

The PCE inflation index shows that the deflationary period of low oil prices is over.  YoY percentage change.

YoY the PCE less food and energy inflation index shows that general prices are flat.  So what is good is that it doesn't appear to be getting worse by going down or worse by going up.

Real Personal Income YoY is going the wrong way.

Obviously Real Personal Income per Capita going down from a year ago is not good.

What about the direct earnings category? I am persuaded the aggregate indexes are the best at reflecting what is going on.  Here I compare both hours and earnings to inflation.  This picture is not going in the right direction.

However, earnings vs inflation isn't confirming a bad situation.  Inflation may very well be going up but weekly earnings are steady.

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