Friday, March 3, 2017

Monetary Review REAL M1 & M2

Shrinking money supply is death to the economy.  Real M1 is best observed on a 3 month moving average.  Deceleration of the Money Supply at the same time the yield curve is flattening is a sign of caution. The yield curve is not flat but it is beginning to flattening.  See two posts ago.

Real M1 growth has been declining.  Recently, June 2015 the grow went negative but it bottomed then and had a nice run but that ended May 2016.  Most recently the growth went slightly negative but thankfully rebounded from there.  It is important that the next report takes the blue line above the down sloping short term line.

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