Tuesday, October 16, 2018

10/16/18 retail sales and money velocity

I took the full retail sales figure for September and deducted gas station sales looking at the result from a year ago.  I eliminated gas station sales because gasoline prices had been going up steeply.  This is not a picture of an accelerating economy.  Not a declining economy either.

I use Industrial Production as a proxy for GDP when calculating velocity of the M1 money stock measurement.  This little decline is really disappointing to me after having velocity stop declining and flatten out.  If this line would go up it would mean an accelerating economy.

Thursday, October 4, 2018

10/04/18 Thank you Jay Powell Bond Rout

On 09/29/18 I wrote, “Should the 10 year rate jump higher the rout begins and stocks crash.

On 10/03/18 Jay Powell said the economy was so strong that they are considering pushing rates higher than the neutral rate of interest.  And that rates were far below the neutral rate of interest so we have a long way to go.